How Many Candles to Bring to a Craft Fair

Two published rules of thumb, put together, give you a number. CandleScience says "research suggests" about 5 to 10 percent of attendees will buy from you. Craftybase says "a common starting point is to bring two to three times what you expect to sell." Both are starting points, not promises. Your own sales from past markets matter more than either, so keep the numbers.

What are the steps?

1. Get the attendance. CandleScience says to ask the organizers for past attendance if it is not published, because it affects how much to bring.
2. Estimate your buyers. Multiply attendance by 5 to 10 percent, CandleScience's range. Your first market is a guess. Your fifth is data.
3. Estimate candles per buyer. This is not in either source. Work it out from your own past sales: candles sold divided by customers.
4. Work out expected sales. Buyers times candles per buyer.
5. Multiply by 2 to 3. That is Craftybase's rule for the stock to bring.
6. Subtract what you already have. What is left is what to pour.
7. Round up to whole batches. You pour in batches, so round up to the next batch size.
8. Cure and pack in time. CandleScience says to start several weeks ahead so there is time to order supplies and make the candles. Our cure guide has the waiting time for wax.

Worked example

These numbers are examples. Say the fair expects 800 people. Last time at a similar market you sold 33 candles to 22 customers, so candles per buyer is 33 / 22 = 1.5.

The spread is wide, which is honest: nobody can know the crowd. I would plan on the middle case at 2 times, which is 180 candles, and keep a restock plan for the best sellers. Craftybase says knowing your materials on hand tells you whether you can make more of a popular item before the next event.

Now the money tied up. If a candle costs $6.50 with packaging (an example), 180 candles is 180 x $6.50 = $1,170. At 3 times, 270 x $6.50 = $1,755. Decide what you can afford to have sitting in a box if the weather is bad.

Next, what to pour. Say 45 finished candles are already on your shelf: 180 - 45 = 135 to make. If one pour is 24 candles, 135 / 24 = 5.6, so round up to 6 pours, which is 6 x 24 = 144 candles. You end with 45 + 144 = 189, nine over target. The pour costs 144 x $6.50 = $936.

What should the mix be?

Craftybase says to prioritize your best sellers, include a range of price points, and put lower-cost items near the front. CandleScience says of wholesale that shops like options under $15, $20 and $30. Its market bundle example is three small candles for $30. I would keep more of the middle-priced scents that sold fastest last time. That is my suggestion, not a sourced figure.

What do I do after the fair?

Count what is left and write down what sold. Craftybase says to note best sellers, slow movers, customer comments and the final stock count right away. CandleScience suggests comparing inventory counts before and after to track sales. Next time, your candles per buyer and your buyer rate are real numbers instead of guesses.

Common mistakes

• Taking a number from someone else's table at a different fair.
• Skipping the attendance question.
• Bringing only your top scent, so shoppers have no choice.
• Pouring the week before, then selling candles that have not cured.
• Forgetting to subtract finished candles you already have.
• Not counting afterward, so the next estimate is a guess too.

Questions

Is 5 to 10 percent a safe number?

CandleScience says "research suggests" it but does not name the research, and I could not find a study behind it. Treat it as a first guess and replace it with your own numbers as soon as you have them. Your own past sales will tell you more than any range.

Should I bring the 3 times amount?

Only if you can carry it, afford it and sell down what is left over later. Craftybase gives 2 to 3 times as a starting point. The lower end suits a first fair or a tight budget.

What if I sell out early?

Write down when. That tells you the stock was too low, and the time of day is a clue for next time. Think about a sign that says you take orders, if the organizer allows it.